4bet shoves mod hyppige 3bets

taget fra cts687.livejournal.com/

cts' range for a 4bet shove mod hyppige 3bettere er AA, KK, Axo og Axs.


"Let's do some of the math behind preflop 4-bet shoving. I will be using PokerStove for most of the analysis. It's really nice free software, I'd highly recommend checking it out. Consider a 3/6NL game with $600 effective stacks. I open from middle position with A5 for $21. The button, an aggressive 22/17 player, reraises me to $77. I shove all-in for $600. Let's assume he will call me with { QQ+, AKs, AKo }. Against this range my equity is right at 30%. Actually, against just about any sane calling range I have around 30% equity with a suited ace.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.1525 % 28.99% 01.16% { A5s }
Hand 2: 69.8475 % 68.69% 01.16% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
So when my 4-bet shove is called my expectation is

0.30 * (600 + 21 + 6 + 3) - 0.70 * (600 - 21) = -$216

When he folds to my 4-bet shove, I win

77 + 21 + 6 + 3 = $107

Then if he folds to my 4-bet shove 2/3 of the time, the play is roughly neutral EV with A5 in this situation (2*107 - 216 = -$2 in EV). His calling range of queens or beter and ace-king is precisely the top 2.6% of hands. So for him to fold to my 4-bet shove more than 2/3 of the time and make my shove profitable, he needs to be reraising me with more than 7.8% of his hands. The top 7.8% of hands is the range { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AQo+ }. When I have a loose, wild image, players are 3-betting me light with all sorts of stuff, including suited connectors and small pairs, most of which they will have to fold to a push so the shove shows an immediate positive expectation."

Men det sjove er er at man faktisk kan 4 bet shove en meget bredere range.

En range som { 88+, A2s+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+ } har 34.21% equity mod { QQ+, AKs, AKo }. Hvilket betyder at man faktisk kan 4bet shove hele sin UTG opening range imod en hyppige 3better.

Når man 4bet shover så meget kan der ske to ting: Villain stopper med at 3bette eller begynder at kalde 4bet shoves med en bredere range.

Hvis vi udvider villans calling range til {TT+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+}, så er vi faktisk oppe og have 44% equity. Hvilket giver følgende matematik:

Når han kalder:

0.44 * (600 + 21 + 6 + 3) - 0.56 * (600 - 21) = -47

Når han folder:

77 + 21 + 6 + 3 = $107

Hvilket betyder at han nu kun skal folde ~ 1/3 af gangene for at det er +EV.

Jeg er ret sikker på at man kan bygge videre på det her med en fuktion som indholder Villains calling range mod Hero's 4bet range, samt Villains 3bet range som indikator for hvor tit han folder.

Jeg praktiserer ind i mellem den strategi -- typisk over for spillere som 3-better mig ofte i position.

F.eks. spillede jeg i går mod en som 3-bettede mig med K5s og den slags, hvilket man ret hurtigt bliver træt af.

Jeg 4-better dog til halv stack ($555), hvilket er pot-committende.

Jørn