Her er en fremragende analyse:
The 2010 Ryder Cup - Celtic Manor Twenty Ten course.
Is it just me or is the Ryder Cup getting a bit too big for its boots? A great golf competition yes, but the biggest golf betting event in history? Some people seem to think it is the World Cup and Olympics rolled into one and the people of South Wales have been made to think that after this week, Newport will be the centre of the commercial world, such will be the fringe benefits of staging a golf tournament. Perhaps all the hype is just there to justify the expense of brining the Ryder Cup to Wales, in early October. Whose idea was that? The chances of the weather being poor at this time of year were always going to be high and this looks like being the wettest Ryder Cup in recent times. Both Friday and Sunday are set to be played in poor conditions with rain from early morning to the close of play.
Perhaps this will suit the 'home' team? Not really, it rains everywhere as we saw at the Players Championship for example, but what it will do is stop the ball from running, giving an advantage to the long drivers, an area were the Americans have the upper hand. Monty has not had the course set up for the home team, just too normal European Tour conditions and he may have missed a trick there. Narrowing the fairways around the 295 � 310 yard mark may have spiked a few of the Americans big guns.
That said driving distance is perhaps the only area were the USA team looks to hold any significant advantage. Home advantage is very significant, since 1979, the start of the 'modern era' of the Ryder Cup when European players were included, there have been four away wins from fifteen with one tied match. USA has not won away since 1993 and they come here facing what is arguably the strongest ever European team. Two of this years major winners line up for Europe, four of the worlds top 10 and only one player ranked outside the world top 40 (Peter Hanson, 42nd). Captain Montgomerie has even had the luxury of leaving out world number 7 Paul Casey, preferring Edourdo Molinari, Padraig Harrington and Luke Donald. Donald, world ranked number 8 was always likely, as was the in form Molinari, a natural partner for his brother with whom he won the World Cup last year. Harrington was the controversial choice, slipping down the world rankings after a disappointing season, but the Captain obviously rates him highly and it would be hard to leave out a three time major winner with a wealth of Ryder Cup experience.
Top European
The Captains picks may give us a clue as to whom will get to play all five possible matches. With six rookies in the squad Montgomerie needed a couple of experience players to balance the team and Harrington is now one of the 'senior' players and is likely to be used to pair up with some of the rookies in the fourball and foursomes. It could well be that he is a player that will get five games. He will not have been picked to keep Monty company on a buggy. A final round 64 in France last week will have set him up nicely and he was on fire on Tuesdays practice round. Missed the cut on his only appearance here in 2008.
Luke Donald is another pick who could find himself playing five games. Montgomerie holds Donald in high esteem, comparing him to Berhard Langer, the player Monty regards as the professionals professional. Donald's great accuracy make him a great asset in pairs and with a playing record of played seven, won five, halved one, lost one, his strike rate is the highest in the European team. He finished 2nd at the Players Championship at the weekend to underline his good current form and a 3rd place finish in The Wales Open here in June will further boost his chances.
The Molinari brothers will play in the pairs together almost certainly on Friday morning but they are both rookies and with Monty keen to get all his players in action before the singles, they may have to sit out at least one session. I am a huge fan of these two players and if they play like they did when winning the World Cup, dropping them will be brave. Both are extremely accurate players and they will be very hard to beat. Both have also a top five course finish.
McDowell and McIlroy will be another pairing and the Northern Irish dream team are likely to play the opening match on Friday. The temptation may be to play McIlroy in all matches as he is seen as the talisman of the team, the hottest young player in golf, the new Tiger Woods etc. etc. He is good but he is a rookie and a bit wild off the tee. He will not lack for aggression but expecting too much from him may be a mistake. He is not yet the best player in the European team, never mind the world. The potential is there but there is little doubt he is overhyped compared to Martin Kaymer.
The German has a few more years experience than McIlroy and he is a much more prolific winner with seven European tour wins, three of them this season and of course he won the final major of the season after top 10�s in the us and British Opens. Clearly he is the man for the big occasions and McIlroy has some way to go before he can be considered Europe's best. Leaving Kaymer out of any match would be a brave and perhaps foolish suggestion. He is not favourite without good reason and is in fantastic form after following up his USPGA title by winning the Dutch Open. Finished 12th here in June.
Graeme McDowell is an interesting proposition. He won the Wales Open on this course back in June, just before he went to Pebble Beach and winning the US Open. That win lifted him onto the top tier of world golf and he wisely took a break from competitive golf to let it sink in and recharge the batteries. He returned to competitive play in Austria two weeks ago and showed that he is in top form with a third place finish. He will play with his friend McIlroy with whom he finished runner up to the Molinari's in the World Cup and even if McIlroy is rested, Monty will be tempted to play the course specialist at every opportunity.
Lee Westwood is the teams anchor man. World number three, he has played 29 Ryder Cup ties (W14, L10, H5) and would normally be a stick on to play every match. However he has been sidelined with a tore calf muscle and has not played competitive golf since early August. He is said to be fully fit now but a lack of real golf for that length of time could not be described as great preparation. Poulter will be expected to play the part of a senior player but there is no love lost between himself and Montgomerie which may hurt his chances of getting five games. Jimenez is another old hand to help the rookies but his Ryder Cup record is poor with just two wins from twelve and it is hard to see him being used much, despite his good recent form.
That leaves two rookies, Ross Fisher and Peter Hanson. As rookies it is unlikely they will be playing every match but neither should be underestimated. Hanson has the lowest profile in the competition and will be the one player who the casual fan will not have heard of but he is a two time winner this season and has missed just one cut in his last twenty five stroke play events. He will be hard to beat and is likely to be decent value in any game he plays in. Ross Fisher has had a much less consistent season and was especially poor early on. However he finally found some form and won the Irish Open and comes here on the back of back to back top 20's. On his day Fisher is world class but as a rookie he may find this weekend another learning experience.
So who looks the value to be Europe's top scorer? The money has been going on Kaymer and I am not about to disagree with that and will go further and suggest him as top combined points scorer. The chances of McDowell and Donald also look good given current and course form.
2 points e/w Martin Kaymer to be top combined points scorer @ 12/1 with Totesport, Ladbrokes
1 point Graeme McDowell to be top European points score @ 8/1 generally available
1 point Luke Donald to be top European points score @ 8/1 generally available
Top USA Player
Tiger Woods is the bookies 10/1 favourite to be the top combined points scorer, which given a record of W10, L13, D2 does not look a great price. Since he was caught with his pants down his form has gone from stellar, to modest. No wins in 2010 and hell he even missed a cut! However he did finish 4th in the Masters and 3rd in the US Open but since then, as the divorce was being negotiated, he practiced little and cared less with no more top 10's. He did mange three top 20's in his most recent three events, but this is not the Tiger of old. Clearly the punters think that for once the Ryder Cup will be right up his street, a chance for public redemption. In the past he has been dismissive of the event, preferring to prioritise the Majors and personal glory rather than a team event for which he doesn't get paid. This time however, it is exactly the team element which might just be the key to a Tiger revival. He needs his pals right now and while he will never be the top of many fellow pro's Christmas card list he may just find that the camaraderie of the team atmosphere just what he needs to kick start his game.
It was Hal Sutton who once picked Woods and Mickelson as the opening pairing for the USA and they got humped, setting the scene for another European win. That will not happen again, which is good news for both players who are great rivals but not great friends. Mickelson is the fans favourite and surely the soon to be worlds number one player but his Ryder Cup record is good rather than impressive (W10, L14, H6). His recent form is not that great either, no wins since the Masters in May and just one top ten since his 3rd in the US Open. He, like Woods, has always been more interested in the Majors than the Ryder Cup and once even used the event to debut a new club and ball supplier.
Steve Stricker is the bookies 2nd favourite to be the top USA scorer and looks very short at 6/1. For such an experienced player he has played just one Ryder Cup, the 2008 renewal at Valhalla were he was a weak link in a winning USA team, losing twice and getting just one half point for a draw. He is very consistent on the PGA tour, a regular winner, but he doesn't have many stamps in his passport and may just miss his home comforts. Likely to play with Woods which may explain his short price.
Jim Furyk looks a more interesting betting proposition. A very experienced Ryder Cup player even if he has only won eight of his twenty four matches. He won the Players Championship and Fedex Cup at the weekend, netting an obscene amount of money just for playing golf. His confidence will be high but will he still be at the top of his game, or coming off the mountain?
Hunter Mahan has lacked consistency this season, very poor for the first few months before winning the WGC Bridgestone Invitational in August which led to a run of cuts made, if never looking like winning since. Like Stricker, he might have had problems finding his passport.
Dustin Johnson very nearly had a brilliant season after being in real contention for the US Open (blew that with a final round 82) and the USPGA (5th). He did win twice and one of those was just two weeks ago so there is no doubting his current form. He is massively long off the tee which could play out well on a wet course but with the rough very lush and penal after recent rain, his lack of accuracy could cost him. He has played twice in Europe this year which makes him a positive globe trotter amongst his fellow Americans. Ranked 12th in the world he is a fine player and could score well if paired with a straight hitter like Furyk or Zach Johnson.
Zach Johnson has enjoyed a very consistent season and finished it well with twelve consecutive cuts. He has only played one Ryder Cup with a modest record of W1, L2, H1 but he is the kind of straight hitting, good putter who could be a good foil for some of the monster hitters like Watson, Overton or Dustin Johnson.
Matt Kuchar has developed into a very fine player. Eleven top 10's this season including a win at the end of August and indeed last weeks poor display at the Players Championship was his first bad event for quite some time. Very accurate, a good putter and unless the long season has taken its toll, in form.
Stewart Cink is another American with a less than great Ryder Cup record (W4, L7, H4) but he is the ultimate grinder who does not give up. Has made his last eleven cuts but only scored one top 10 which sums him up nicely. Steady if unspectacular and will probably continue in the same vein as before.
Rickie Fowler, one of Captain Pavin's picks, may feel a little uncomfortable in so far as the team uniform may prevent him from dressing up like a complete cock. Yes, worse than Poulter. A surprise choice for many but Fowler is seen as the future star of the PGA tour, but that future looks some way off given he missed the cut nine times this season and his five top 10's were the exception rather than the rule. His recent form has not been great and the experience may overwhelm him.
Bubba Watson has made his name this year, finally turning his big drives into a win but he is far from consistent and his recent form has not been great. Not a great traveller and to him Europe is a rock band and Wales are very big fish.
Jeff Overton is the lowest ranked player in the event but he has five top 3 finishes to his credit this season. Unfortunately for him his last five events have been poor, breaking 70 just once in 18 rounds. That sort of play will not win him any games this week.
1 point e/w Matt Kuchar to be top USA points scorer @ Betfred, VCBet
Outright Betting.
It is hard to get away from a European win. In terms of world rankings, there is very little between the two teams but taking home advantage and current form into account this looks like win number six in the last eight Ryder Cups for Europe. Ten of the last eighteen European Tour events have been won by a member of the European team, including two majors which is exceptional. Montgomerie was an outstanding Ryder Cup player and has yet to put a foot wrong so far as Captain. Pavin is also likely to be a shrewd Captain but for once an American team will go into the singles thinking they may not actually have, pound for pound, the better players. Traditionally Europe is stronger in the fourballs and foursomes, while the Americans win more singles. These two teams look so well matched that Europe will not have to rely on their better team spirit getting them a good lead on the first two days but that they can beat the USA mano mano on Sunday as well.
5 points Europe to win the Ryder Cup @ 1.70 with Paddy Power
Håber i kan bruge det...
Faldo
