Denmark is on Verge of Icelandic Style Crash?

En ven linkede til denne artikel på FB:
Luxor Capital Q3 Shareholder Letter: Long Denmark CDSs, Denmark is on Verge of Icelandic Style Crash
www.valuewalk.com/2011/12/luxor-capital-q3-shareholder-letter-short-danske-bank/

Ved ikk om linket virker nu, men er alligevel ikk noget at læse ud over comments, hvor af de vigtigste er copy pasted til tråden her.
Content removed per the request of Luxor Capital. Please do not contact me asking me for the content.

Skal til julefrokost nu, så har kun læst det hurtigt igennem.

Hvad synes folk? Har DK et stort problem?

Et par citater:
This means that by law in Denmark, you can form a bank with $8MM of equity capital and borrow (with government guaranteed deposits and wholesale borrowings) $992,000,000 to fund a $1BN residential mortgage portfolio of, as you will see later, largely one-year, floating rate, interest-only, single family mortgages and you’d be considered “well capitalized” by the regulators.

As with Ireland and Iceland, a nation’s citizens ultimately, one way or the other, are on-the-hook for its banking debts. In Denmark that equates to about $300,000 per man, woman and child, or $800,000 per working household4. With such an enormous debt burden effectively recourse to its citizens, one would imagine Denmark, a nation who has demonstrated parsimony in its sovereign budget, would have in-place stringent capital regulations to insure this debt burden was never assumed by its citizens. Unfortunately, in a scene played out across Europe, no such rules exist.


Glædelig jul allesammen :)

Jeg kan desværre ikke komme ind og se artiklen via dit link, ligesom jeg får en besked om, at selve hjemmesiden er "forbidden 404".

Jeg har imidlertid læst artiklen tidligere i dag, på arbejdet, hvor jeg også læste den øverste kommentar til artiklen (MichaelThomsen eller lign.).
Han tilbageviser samtlige påstande fra artiklen..

Han siger bl.a. noget a la: "This is a perfect example of why Americans fail to profit on European markets." & "I should have ignored this article, but it's like having a high school kid from Utah analysing Russian Politics".

Nu er det desværre ikke mig der er kommet med dette modsvar, men lyder som fyren har en pointe:

"One of the worst informed articles I have ever seen. Many European countries have similar Bank Assets to GDP and have had for many years. Your reference to Icelandic Style Crash should seriously make any serious reader block your website going forward. Some facts:
1) Denmark has one of the lowest debt to gdp ratios in Europe (much lower than the "amazing" US)
2) It has an unemployment rate of 5%
3) The 10 year Gvmt bond rate is 50 bps tighter than Germany
4) Danske Bank only has 3.3bn net exposure to PIIGS bonds, not 17bn as per your article (as per their Q3 report) and that is marked to market, so a non-issue
5) The Danish property market has already corrected 30% and the losses have been taken
6) The Irish real estate development book has been written down by 80% and now poses very little residual risk. They have written this book down to the bare bones.
7) The company has a core tier 1 ratio above 10% making it one of the 10 best capitalised large caps banks in Europe
8) Your stats on the concentration of the banking system are correct. This has been the concentration for the last 50 years - why it should suddenly lead to a collapse is a puzzling conclusion.
9) Your article shows that you haven't understood the match-funding concept for Danish mortgage bonds, but I can refer you to Wikipedia if you want to understand why you are missing the point.
10) Oh and by the way it's illegal to short shares of Danish banks, but I am sure you are aware of that...

You are a fantastic example of why US investors consistently fail to make money in Europe. They take their simplistic US analysis and try to model the rest of the world accordingly.

I know I should have ignored this post and not responded, but this is like reading a high school kid from Utah analysing Russian politics.

Read more: www.valuewalk.com/2011/12/luxor-capital-q3-shareholder-letter-short-danske-bank/#ixzz1fr9Igh5L "

Haha.. fantastisk..
Elsker når amerikanerne begynder at kalde nordiske landes økonomi en katastrofe, når alle ved at den eneste grund til at USA overlever deres kaos er, at alle har brug for dem.. Europa, Asien og Sydamerika..

Surt at linket ikke virker. Måske prøv: www.valuewalk.com/2011/12/luxor-capital-q3-shareholder-letter-short-danske-bank/

Ser ud til at jeg malede fanden på væggen og er da glad for at Luxors analyse ser ud til at være off.

Thomas Borgsmidts svar til #4:
"Well, well, well a Danish Bank claque sticks his neck out of the sewer!
I'm here referring to Michaelthomson 1970, that perpetrates figures taken out of context manipulated figures and semi-half-truths.
1) That is not true: Most of the debt in Denmark is private, not public - as it is hard to run up a foreign debt when you are an oil exporting nation. So factoring in the private debt Denmark is very much a PIIGS nation.
2) The unimployment rate is about the most manipulated figure in Danish statistic - which is a well known fact - and accounts for the plenthora of relevant statistics also published. Lets instead look at EMPLOYMENT
dl.dropbox.com/u/332265...
Employment is dropping with about 2-3 percent anually, that is jobs (and not idiotic streetsweeping) that can sevice debt.
3) The 10 year bond true. But banks and mortgage companies cannot borrow - they buy their own bonds, and finance them on the day to day market.
dl.dropbox.com/u/332265...
There is lots of liquidity in the market - but NOT for the major banks issuing realestatebonds.
The hollow lines are government bonds - dropping in interestrate like a piano flying - BUT the banks borrowing terms are such that unsecured 3 months borrowing is at an interest rate on the level with the 5 year government bond.
The national bank has stopped quoting secured bank borrowings - as Danske Bank has no colatteral to put up as security.
4) Danske Bank is not particularly exposed to PIIGS - true; but that is due to the fact, that they are stuffed to the gills in their own defaulting real estate bonds. The lenders do not pay interest nor do they pay off debt.
On the contrary: Bank lending is converted to real estate mortgages - that is expanding dispite a realestate market with no one buying!
5) The realestate market has corrected - yes and NOT.
dl.dropbox.com/u/332265...
The prices are dropping again - we have only figures for Q2 in 2011, as they are being held back. Three years ago Q3 would have been availble before the end of October.
It is not because they are busy: Number of sales are worse than during 2008-09
dl.dropbox.com/u/332265...
Price is a moot point with booming stocks and no trade.
6) The irish realestate book may have been written down; but the Danish has not - on the contrary the writeoffs have been reinvigorated by the miracle recovery of the danish housing market - if you believe that - I have a few Eiffel Towers in stock.
7) If Danske Bank is so well capitalised, why was their issue of new bonds such a flop.
The nice book is nice - because they do not take losses. In the bank that have flopped equity was lost 2-3-4 times. Danske Bank is to all intents and purposes bankrupt.
8) Why should Danske Bank suddenly collapse? That is easy to answer: Danske Bank has grown because they have lend money to debtors with neither the ability nor the intention of sevicing debt.
9) The concept of the danish bonds has been destroyed.
Today the danish property bond is covered with security in overpriced and unsellable houses "owned" by debtors that neither can nor will service debt. This means Danske Bank has to buy the bonds they issue themselves.
10) The illegality in the trading with shares - well when the authorities are deliberately not informed of deals - that remains a moot point.

So Michaelthomson is a spindoctor from Danske Bank, that distribute misleading and irrelevant information proposing a significance opposite reality"

i skal bare fjerne den sidste slash. eller copy/paste dette link. www.valuewalk.com/2011/12/luxor-capital-q3-shareholder-letter-short-danske-bank

Det virker dog som om de har taget artiklen ned

Nu kommer nyheden fra en hedgefond, og som jeg lige læste på 180grader, så kunne det tænkes at de måske havde en masse penge short på bankaktier i dk :-)

Analysen var oppe at vende i Deadline i går, hvor den også fik kniven.

@hermod
Luxor fik artiklen fjernet engang igår. Måske var de lidt trætte af at få deres inkompetence udstillet ;)

Artikel fra berlingeren: Dansk overskud blandt verdens største