Eksempel på en hånd-analyse fra min side

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www.pokernet.dk/forum/show.asp?tid=241723


Eksempel på et analyse jeg kom med i går på et lukket forum jeg er en del af:

En person på forummet poster denne hånd:


Villain is playing 40/32 with 16% 3bet over (only) 40 hands. I dont have a lot of reads, but I know he use to play 10-20 and some 25-50, and I look at him as capabel/a good reg.

I am playing 25/19/9 so far, have not got into any hands vs him yet, so no history. I stacked a fish, with AK vs AJ blind vs blinds, in a 3bet pot, on a A59 board. So completly standard.
He has seen me play a few hands of 10-20 before, but thats about everything, I expect him to know about me.

So, what do we think about my flop checkback? And,are we calling the riverbet?

Thierry vd Berg ($2,094)
n0l1f3r ($1,053)
xIzAnx ($350)
mapofatrap ($3,316)
NinjaSanchez ($1,131)
Hero ($1,727)

Thierry vd Berg posts (SB) $5
n0l1f3r posts (BB) $10

Dealt to Hero Q♦ K♠
fold, fold, fold,
Hero raises to $25
Thierry vd Berg raises to $100
fold,
Hero calls $75
FLOP ($210) K♣ Q♣ A♦
Thierry vd Berg checks
Hero checks
TURN ($210) K♣ Q♣ A♦ 3♣
Thierry vd Berg bets $185
Hero calls $185
RIVER ($580) K♣ Q♣ A♦ 3♣ 8♦
Thierry vd Berg bets $745
Hero?



Mit svar:

Even though you only got a small pre-flop sample with regards to he's stats we must assume that he is more aggressive then the average player. Combined with the fact that he is also playing higher stakes I think it makes it even more likely that he is on the aggressive side.

If you agree with those assumptions I don't like the flop checkback
I suppouse you are checking the flop to pot-control?

I don't think that is necessary because an aggressive player will imo the vast majority of the time c-bet the flop with he's strong hands in order the balance the times that he wants
to potientially set himself up for a 3-barrel bluff.

+ You range consist of a lot of hands like: KJ, KTs, QJs, TT and so on...

Hands that will often call a flop lead, but check back when checked to.

Unless he thinks that you will try to exploit him by 3-barreling with a wide bluff-range when he check I don't think that he is going to check with a strong range in this spot.
( When he checks in this spot I think he most often got a hand that can stand one/two barrels - But rarely three )

But based on what you write it don't think that it seems like he got any incentive to believe you are aggressive enough to exploit that often enough for him to check a monster range in this spot.

I would also call the river as I think he can try to represent a polarized range (IE: trying to get you to hero-call versus he's air range) while actually making a valuebet with a hand like AJo. -
I would be likely to do that in this spot myself as both of your ranges seems capped.
He can of course also be bluffing / got a AcXc hand which have been mentioned.