NFL playoffs 08-01-2011

Så skete det nu bliver sæsonen spændende, nu kommer tiden hvor favorit betters som regel bliver owned da alt kan ske any given sunday...

og gud hvor har det været sandt de sidste mange år....

New Orleans Saints - Seattle Seahawks

Linjerne hedder Saints lige på 1.22, Saints -10.5p 2.1 eller også hedder linjen o/u 44.5 til hhv 1.91/2.06

Dette er lige pt btw...

Jeg tror de fleste kan se at der ikke ligefrem er kæmpe value i nogen af disse spil, så lad os prøve at kigge på lidt statistik...

Seahawks er et af de dårligste hold i nfl når de taber, i alt fald med deres tab margin, de taber med gennemsnitslig 3 TD's (!!?). De er det første hold i NFL's historie som er kommet til playoffs med en negativ win/loose record og alligevel har de hjemmebane fordelen.

De 2 hold mødtes tidligere på året i New Orleans hvor Saints vandt 31-16, jeg så denne kamp og Saints spillede som de nu gør, men Seahawks vandrede op og ned af banen...uden at være 100% sikker mener jeg at Seahawks havde 7 FG forsøg og missede 4 indenfor 50y, og jeg synes i alt fald kampen var noget tættere end 31-16....

anyway mit pick til denne kamp bliver enten Seahawks +9 til 2.25 eller Seahawks +10.5 til 1.86

Jamen du har lige stået og fortalt hvor dårlige Seahawks er, random lottoness de overhovedet er der osv....

Ja men her er et par ting jeg vægter højt..

Seahawks har altså hjemmebane fordelen som diverse top sites tit og ofte hentyder til som +3

Det er playoffs og alt kan ske + at der vil blive meget tid af uret i hhv 3 og 4q såfremt det på dette tidspunkt er en 1 TD game...

Seahawks gjorde PRÆCIS DET DE SKAL I AFTEN I SIDSTE UGE, i sidste uge mødte de et væsentligt bedre overall hold hvor de specielt burde være out fucking matched mod rams på QB (Sam Bradford og RB (Steven Jackson ((LOVE THIS GUY))

Seahawks lukkede dem ned uden jeg rigtig er noget frem til hvordan de gjorde det...men denne sejr hvor de med kniven for struben og ganske uventet vinder over rams gør altså at de kommer med en kæmpe selvtillid, og de vil gøre alt i deres magt.

Sidst men ikke mindst så har Seahawks spillet en kamp i playoffs i mine øjne, og det var den kamp mod rams, de nerver/spænding som Saints kommer med og måske lige gør til de ikke er der helt 100% mentalt det første q, det tror jeg ikke Seahawks vil have i samme stil.

Men lad os være realistiske, Seahawks kan vel ikke slå Saints, men jeg tror den bliver tættere end folk tror, jeg spår Saints vinder 21-17 eller Saints vinder på et fantastisk 4q drive af Drew Brees.

Jeg håber nogen har spottet en fidus til aftenens anden kamp, jeg har ikke haft tid til at analysere den endnu og synes udfra det jeg ved at den er tuff, men håber andre har fundet noget...hjælper absolut heller ikke at være colts mand helt ind i sjælen når man skal dette jo :-)

bump, klokken var vist lidt tidlig da den blev postet, og så gled den langt ned, plejer jo nok at være noget folk har en mening om..

Jeg tror værdien i aften ligger i storsejren til Saints, da jeg jeg ikke tror Seahawks får mere end 13 points, og de ikke kan holde Breese fra at lave minimum 3 TDs og så det løse.

Mht Colts-Jets, har jeg en fornemmelse af en Colts sejr, men det er en kamp man bettingwise bør holde sig fra IMO.

Jeg har i en tidligere tråd postet et c/p af et great writeup jeg har fundet i et andet forum om Balt/Chiefs kampen i morgen - og har nu fundet et superb et til colts/jets kampen, så det bliver postet nedenfor (ADVARSEL: DET ER LANGT) :-)

Topics:
Myth of the Colts poor rushing defense
Colts vs. good defenses
Red Zone Differential
Turnovers
Absence of Key Players
Mark Sanchez down the stretch
Kicking Battle
Importance of playing Starters in Week 17
Miscellaneous Trends


Colts vs. good defenses

So we dispel the myth that the Colts can't beat a good rushing team. In fact, we see the Colts are undefeated vs. these teams ATS since 2008 (15-0). Well the Jets aren't just a good run team, they also have a very good defense. Surely, with the Colts struggles this year, they won't hold up vs. such a good defense:


* Against good defenses, averaging fewer than 315 ypg allowed, the Colts at home in meaningful non-divisional games (non-lay down week 16/17 games) are 17-4 SU/ATS since 2004.
* Against good defenses, averaging fewer than 315 ypg allowed, who are not great passing teams (average less than 215 passing ypg) the Colts at home in meaningful non-divisional games (non-lay down week 16/17 games) are 10-1 SU/ATS since 2004.

Red Zone Differential

The Colts are the #1 team in the league in red zone scoring percentage (68%), which is even better than they were last season. The Jets are #30 in the league, with a 40% scoring percentage, which is over 10% points lower than last season. The Colts have a 28% advantage! This is a huge delta. How do such deltas translate into ATS wins?


* Since 2004, in closely lined games within 5 of a pickem, teams who own a 21%+ edge in red zone conversions are 20-5 ATS, losing only 2 ATS covers at home.


And in the postseason:


* Since 2004 in the playoffs, teams who convert at least 13.5% more often in the red zone than their opponent are 8-1 SU/ATS. However, in this game, the Colts convert 28% more in the red zone than do the Jets. This is the single largest differential in the postseason since 2002, and perhaps further, as I did not check prior to 2002.

A stat you might not expect is that the 16th ranked Colts red zone defense (52%) is actually better than the 25th ranked Jets red zone defense (60%).

So the Colts are better on both sides of the ball, 28% better in offense and 8% better in defense. History tells us that in the second half of the season, teams who are 20%+ better in offense and 8%+ better in defense are 14-1-1 ATS in 2010.

And since 2005, teams who are 20%+ better in red zone offense and 8%+ better in red zone defense are 26-5 ATS if favored by less than 5 points, including 14-1 ATS if the game is non-divisional.

Turnovers

It's been documented how this Colts team is not taking the ball away this season. They rank 28th in the league in takeaways and have the 19th ranked turnover margin. The Jets, on the other hand, are 5th overall in turnover margin.

It's also fairly well known that teams who win the turnover battle in the playoffs, particularly in the first 3 rounds (prior to the SB) are 60-9 ATS since 2002. What is also fairly obvious is that it is close to impossible to predict with accuracy who will or will not win the turnover battle. So one key I look at is turnover tendency as well as ability to overcome turnovers. Looking at ability to overcome turnovers:

First, as we know, the Colts don't takeaway the ball very much this year, and their turnover margin is 19th in the league. So let's look at how the Colts perform when they lose the turnover margin by 1, 2 or 3 turnovers: (As a side note, the Colts did have 2 outlier games mid season where they lost the turnover battle by 4+. This happens so infrequently to teams, and similarly, opponents rarely win the turnover battle by 4+, that I am not looking at such an implosion historically. As a point of reference, the Jets have won the turnover battle by 4+ just twice out of 35 games under Rex Ryan, 1 time last year and once this year.)

The Colts this season lost the turnover margin by 1, 2 or 3 turnovers in 5 games. They went a remarkable 3-1-1 ATS in the games the lost the turnover margin! You would have to go back to the 2000 season before you found another team who could lose the turnover battle yet win ATS at an equal percentage, (min 4 games). Their only loss came in Jacksonville week 4 of the season.

The Colts have only lost the turnover margin in home games twice this season. Last season they lost it 3 times at home. Since 2003, no team has lost the turnover margin at home fewer times than the Colts. So the Colts have a big advantage in that they are at home, where they are league best in fewest turnover margin, and playoff games are decided so often by turnovers.

What was well documented about the Jets last year was their turnover margin and how it, unlike any other team, immediately translated to W/L. Last year, when winning the turnover margin, they went 10-0 SU/ATS. When losing the turnover margin, they went 0-5 SU/ATS. Unfortunately for the Jets, not much has changed this year. When winning the turnover margin, they are 7-2 ATS, but when losing the turnover margin, they are 1-5 ATS. To compare, remember, the Colts are 3-1-1 ATS.

Of course, like the Jets, the Colts are very good when the win the turnover battle, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, with their only losses coming when winning by 6 at home when favored by 7, and winning by 2 on the road when favored by 3.

So to summarize this lengthy discussion on turnovers:

* The Colts are excellent when winning the turnover battle, but they also are the best the league has seen in 10 years at overcoming losing the turnover battle by 3 or fewer turnovers.
* The Jets are great when winning the turnover battle, but very bad when losing the turnover battle.
* In addition, the Jets have lost the turnover battle on the road 3 times in the 2nd half of the season, which is the 2nd most times in the league, behind only the Bengals.
* The Colts lose the turnover battle at home less than any other team in the league since e the best team in the league since 2003.
* And lastly, as we know, turnovers are the single biggest key to victory inthe postseason than any other statistic, shy of scoring more points than your opponent.

Absence of Key Players

The most talked about absence is Austin Collie, but I'll tell you why Jim Leonhard's absence is more critical:

The Colts losing Austin Collie definitely hurt the team. And it was definitely a large part of the reason for Peyton's slump during the 3 game losing streak when he threw more INTs than TDs. However, I think that Peyton has really adapted. Manning was without Collie in exactly half of the games this year. And while he did struggle, this year he threw for the most yards in his career and the 2nd most TDs in his career. So even though he was without Collie for half the season, he turned in this record breaking season. Admittedly, his QB rating of 92 is the lowest in the last 8 years, but it is not a terrible rating. And as I said, I think he has adapted some, as he scored a rating of over 100 in 2 of the last 3 games without Collie, and in 3 of the last 4 games overall. And the Colts were in must win games and won every single one of them. In those games, Manning threw for 9 TDs and just 2 Ints.

Jim Leonhard, on the other hand, has been harder for the Jets to overcome. The measure of his impact is harder to quantify as so much of his game does not show up in his own stats, but it helps his teammates accumulate better stats. Such as his blitz pressure that occupies a lineman or RB, allowing a teammate to follow in the open hole and record a sack.

Here is his impact in the last two postseasons:

With the Ravens in 2008, in his first 2 playoff starts in Baltimore w/ Rex, Leonhard recorded one interception with a 20-yard return, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, a half-sack, one pass deflected, 11 tackles, and a 29-yard punt return. In addition, his pass-rush pressure on Titans quarterback Kerry Collins in the divisional playoff game helped cause a key interception deep in Ravens territory.

With the Jets in 2009, in his 3 starts, he recorded 16 tackles, 0.5 sacks, one interception, one pass defended, one forced fumble and two fumble recoveries, and he returned nine punts for 115 yards (22.8 avg.).

He started every game for Rex the last year and this year with 1 exception, and has missed just 1 game in 3 years. So how have the Jets fared without him this year? Well we rule out the game week 17 where Sanchez didn't throw a single pass and the Bills started Brian Brohm. And the Jets were without Leonhard and the Jets went 1-3 SU and ATS in those games. In those 4 games, the Jets allowed a higher passer rating than their YTD average in 3 of them. Their only win was vs. the Steelers, in a game they scored just 1 offensive TD which was a QB run by Sanchez, and they needed a 97 yd KO return for TD plus a safety to win. Ben was suffering from his broken foot and was without his TE Heath Miller. It was really a great situation for the Jets, which is why I took them ATS in that game and won.

Although it can't be related to Jim Leonhard's absence, Mark Sanchez has struggled significantly the last several weeks while Jim was gone.

Mark Sanchez down the stretch

Last season, Sanchez really improved his play down the stretch and it really paid off for the Jets. You can remember what happened, Sanchez was turning the ball over left and right, so Rex came up with a color coded band for Sanchez to know whether to play conservatively or aggressively. Well, after losing 6 of 7 games, Sanchez from week 12 thru 17, propelled the Jets to a 5-1 record to make the playoffs. Prior to week 12, he had a QB rating of 61, with 10 TDs and 16 Ints, with 52% completions. After week 12, he really picked up his play and while he didn't throw for a ton of yards or TDs, he was much more efficient, and threw for 59% completions with a QB rating of 68, an increase of 7 points.

This season, in the first 12 weeks, they really gave a lot to Sanchez and he really took off. The Jets went 9-2 and Sanchez threw 55% completions, 15 TDs to just 7 Ints, and a QB rating of 83.

However, since week 12, Sanchez has really regressed. He has thrown for just 2 TDs and 6 Ints, with a QB rating of 61, a decrease of 22 points! It's no surprise that the Jets went 1-3 in those games.

Against a team like the Colts, who as I said earlier, excel at surprising in their ability to contain the run (15-0 SU/ATS vs. teams who run for over 110 yds/game and pass for fewer than 250 yds/game), Sanchez will need to turn in an exceptional performance. And he has not thrown for more than 1 TD since week 11 vs the anemic pass D of Houston, and after starting the season with zero Ints in his first 5 games, he's thrown at least 1 in 9 of his last 10 games, and has thrown 13 total in those 9 games.

Kicking Battle

Yes, I'll mention kickers briefly. The reason is because there's an obvious mismatch that might not make the press but could be critical in the game. Of course, this game is lined just under 3, and could be decided by a FG either way. Think I'm joking?

How about last year in the postseason for the Jets. Jay Feeley (their former kicker) needed to make a 46 yard FG to beat the Chargers by 3 points. Versus the Colts, he had 3 long attempts, making a 48 yarder and missing a 44 yard and 52 yard kick. So I think there is a good chance long FGs (40+ yds) could be relevant, and let's dive into this mismatch. It's Adam Vinatieri for the Colts vs. Nick Folk for the Jets. And I am of the opinion that Folk must get fatigued or tired in the second half of the season. Seems crazy, but hear me out:

With the Cowboys in 2009, Folk went 5 for 8 on FGs of 40+ thru week 8. After week 8 he went 1 for 6, and was actually cut after week 15 because he was so bad. The Jets let Feeley go to Arizona in the offseason and signed the lower priced Folk. Thru week 8 this season, Folk went 4 of 5 on FGs of 40+. Pretty respectable, just like last year in Dallas. However, after week 8, he has gone exactly 1 for 6, just like he did the prior season.

On the season as a whole, Folk has hit just 45% of FGs 40+, which is 3rd worst in the league, but of course his 1 for 6 after week 8 is dead last in the league. And in the second half of the last 2 seasons, he is now 2 for 12 on FGs over 39 yards. Will this be a factor?

I say it's highly likely, for 2 reasons. #1, the Jets needed these long field goals in the postseason last year, and #2, teams frequently need to kick from 40+ vs the Colts:

How often do teams kick from that distance vs. the Colts? How about 4th most in the NFL! From FGs inside of 40 yds, the Colts allow the average # of attempts. But from 40+, the Colts allow the 4th most in the league. Which is one reason why the Jets attempted 3 FGs of 40+ vs. the Colts last season in this spot.

On the other side of the bench is Adam Vinatieri. He nailed 93% of his FGs this year, 4th best in the NFL, and he hit 90% on FGs of 40+. The last 2 years with the Colts, he hit 11 of 13 from 40+, which is 85%. Remember, Folk is 2 for 12 (17%) from 40+ the second half of the last 2 years.

Importance of playing Starters in Week 17

We saw it this past weekend, where 10 of the 12 playoff teams played their starters for all or at least a significant amount of the game, many in games that did not matter. There were only two playoff teams who took the opposite approach: the Jets and the Eagles. So how has such an approach fared in the wildcard round? Why did so many teams, like NE, Chi, KC, whose position was already locked, play their starters? They have learned from history how important it is. How important? It's pretty remarkable...

I looked at all wildcard games since 2005. I looked back at these team's week 17 games where these teams were not favored by more than 3 points in wk 17. The reason I chose -3 is as follows: teams who are lined significantly higher than -3 are most likely teams who need to win the game to make the playoffs and likely would not rest players as a result. I wanted to look primarily at teams who, in many cases, did not need to win the week 17 game, their status in the playoffs was already cemented (such as the Jets and the Eagles this year). And I wanted to see if there was any correlation between how these teams performed in the (many times meaningless) week 17 games to how they played the following week in the playoffs.

here were 18 wildcard teams since 2005 who fit this criteria (played in wk 17 and not favored higher than 3 in wk 17). Only 6 of those 18 teams covered the spread in the wildcard game. That's just 33%. Can you imagine what all 6 of those teams shared in common?

It was that their starters played all or a significant amount of time in their week 17 game:


* 2006, NE was a +3 dog in Ten, wk 17. They won and covered, playing their starters. In the WC round, they won and covered vs. NYJ, 37-16, as a 9.5 pt fav.
* 2006, NYG was a 2.5 pt fav in Was wk 17. They won and covered, playing their starters. In the WC round, they lost but covered in Phi, 20-23, as a 7 pt dog.
* 2007, NYG was a +13 dog vs. NE, wk 17. They lost SU but won ATS, playing their starters. In the WC round, they won and covered in TB, 24-14, as a 3 pt dog.
* 2007, Sea was a pickem in Atl, wk 17. They lost SU/ATS by 3, playing their starters the majority of the game. In the WC round, they won and covered vs. Was, 35-14, as a 4 pt fav.
* 2008, Phi was a 1.5 pt fav vs. Dal, wk 17. They won and covered, playing their starters. In the WC round, they won and covered in Min, 26-14, as a 3 pt fav.
* 2009, Dal was a 3 pt fav vs. Phi, wk 17. They won and covered, playing their starters. In the WC round, they won and covered vs. Phi, 34-14, as a 4 pt fav.

So there were 18 teams, and only 6 teams covered the spread in the wildcard game, and all 6 teams played their starters in week 17. Both the NYJ and Phi are in this situation in the wildcard round, having to play a game after resting starters in week 17, and we will see how they fare, but history does not bode well for these teams.


Miscellaneous Trends


* At home, after week 3, vs teams allowing fewer than 210 passing ypg, the Colts are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS since 2006.
* After week 6 against teams averaging over 222 passing ypg who have at least 1 loss, the Jets are 2-13 ATS since 2007. This year they are 1-5 ATS, losing ATS to GB, Buf, Hou, NE and Mia, and beating only Cin.
* Peyton Manning is 5-0 in full games vs. Rex Ryan defenses, with 12 TDs and 2 Ints. Last year in the playoffs he had 377 yds, 3 TDs and 0 Ints.
* For whatever reason, the Jets are 0-3 SU/ATS under Rex Ryan with long rest. Considering that most of the key players were rested last week, there is a chance this added rest may turn to poor execution.
* The Titans really know how to play the Colts well. Which is why, after a victory of less than 24 points, the Colts are 7-0-1 ATS since 2003 after facing the Titans. They went 1-0 this year and 2-0 last year.

Myth of the Colts poor rushing defense

We know the Colts rush defense (or lack thereof) is a huge topic for the talking heads, and we know the Jets are self labeled "ground & pound", so let's look at how this swiss cheese Colts defense gets chewed up vs. these heavyweight (no pun intended) rush offenses.

* The Colts are a dramatic 6-0 ATS this season vs. teams averaging at least 115 rushing ypg.
* In fact, since last year, the Colts are a bankroll building 13-0 ATS vs. these teams, save for the Super Bowl.
* In fact, since 2006, the Colts have played in 28 games where their opponent was averaging over 115 rushing yds/game (removing any laydown games). The Colts are 29-7 SU and 27-9 ATS. If at home, they are 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS. If not favored by over 5.5 points, they are a perfect 11-0 ATS overall and 7-0 ATS at home.


We know the Jets are a run first team, and are not an incredible pass offense, which plays right into the Colts hands:

The Colts thrive when they play a run dominant team who is not a superior passing team. Why? Because the Colts typically build a lead and force their opponent out of their specialty of running the ball.


* Since 2008, the Colts are 15-0 SU/ATS vs. teams who run for over 110 yds/game and pass for fewer than 250 yds/game, so long as the Colts are not dogs of 4+ points and are on normal rest. They went 5-0 already this year, defeating the Giants, Chiefs, Texans, Jaguars and Raiders.


Sorry for den LANGE post, og selvom jeg selv er på jets ML, fåes write-ups simpelthen ikke meget bedre end denne - den giver cappers af denne kamp en del at tænke over!

GL til hvad end i ender op med at spille derude i aften! ♣

Er der mening om de andre kampe? hvem tror i vinder Superbowl

Mine picks til weekendens wildcard kampe er indtil videre følgende:

LØRDAG 08. JANUAR 2011 - KL. 22:30 SEA SEAHAWKS - NO SAINTS
BET: NO Saints -9.5 til odds 1,83 for 500,00 DKK hos Bet365.

LØRDAG 08. JANUAR 2011 - KL. 22:30 SEA SEAHAWKS - NO SAINTS
BET: Drew Brees over 26.5 pass completions til odds 1,74 for 500,00 DKK hos Bet365.

SØNDAG 09. JANUAR 2011 - KL. 02:00 NY JETS - IND COLTS
BET: Over 44.5 points til odds 1,90 for 500,00 DKK hos Bet365.

SØNDAG 09. JANUAR 2011 - KL. 19:00 KAC CHIEFS - BAL RAVENS
BET: BAL Ravens til odds 1,60 for 500,00 DKK hos Bet365.

Som det efterhånden er blevet en fast tradition i weekenden, så er ovenstående picks hentet fra spilmedprofit.dk, hvor deres NFL ekspert de seneste par måneder har været brand varm.

Jeg tager en Saints storsejr og colts. Singler og så krydre jeg den sku med en double også for lige at donke lidt mere :)

Synes faktisk du skulle gå tilbage og lave dine egne spil igen Nazeem, du virkede ret kompetent og de her offentlig tilgængelige tips vil du tabe på i længden...selvom ham her faktisk virker ganske decent (lige checket hans bets)

hvad er argumenterne for Saints storsejr anyone...? udover at de er awesome ofc

Har holdt mig væk fra Colts-Jets, men gav en rimelig lang analyse af kampen i en af de andre NFL-tråde der har været på det seneste.

Hawks-Saints har jeg heller ikke spillet på endnu. Er ikke i tvivl om at Saints vinder, men er ikke sikker på at det bliver en storsejr. Har dog fundet dette odds der måske får et skud.

Olinde Mare (SEA Seahawks) points vundet på kicks, over 6 point til 1.86. Mon ikke Hawks vil tage de point de kan få, især med en stabil kicker som Mare. Tror egentlig Hawks vil kunne flytte bolden ganske fint ned ad banen, så mon ikke de nok skal få nogle point på tavlen :)

Du har jo sagt det før, Seahawks er jo ikke ligefrem det mest kompetente hold :)

@sayallin

Jeg spiller skam også mine egne picks, men må sige at jeg faktisk er ret enig med DaneGreed fra spilmedprofit.dk med hensyn til hans wildcard picks.

Foruden de tidligere nævnte picks, så spiller jeg følgende:

- Peyton Manning (IND Colts) over 278.5 pass yards til odds 1.71
- Blair White (IND Colts) over 48.5 receiving yards til odds 2.10

Jets er normalt kendt for et super defense, men jeg synes ikke at de har været overbevisende i år, så tror ikke Manning får problemer med at finde sine receivere. Manning sætter altid mange points på tavlen og specielt hvis Colts kommer bagud, så kan han blive tvunget til at kaste mere.

Med hensyn til Blair White, så har han stille og roligt udviklet sig til en af Mannings foretrukne receivere. Dette grundet de mange skader, som Colts har været ramt af i løbet af sæsonen. Jeg tror ikke han får problemer med at nå dette spread.

Altså jeg tager colts - om Manning så var skadet = mere value på Colts (dette skyldes nok mit had til Jets!).

Saints er et bedre hold på alle pos. De er ved at komme i form og ligner et hold man ka regne med. Der er altså en grund til at Seahawks er 7-9.... vil skide på deres hjemmebane!

Lidt at tænke over...

Saints har ALDRIG vundet en Wildcard kamp på udebane...

LOL KD

@KD

Havde egentlig fået indtryk af at du havde en meget fornuftig tilgang til NFL capping, men det kan jeg da se ikke helt holder stik :-)

@ Sayallin

Den sidste kamp mellem Hawks og Saints var som du rigtigt siger tættere end scoren antyder.
Problemet for Seahawks var at hver gang Saints laved TD lavede Seahawks FG.

Olindo Mare var 4/4 så det var ikke pga kicker issues Seahawks tabte kampen. Det var pga D ikke kunne stoppe noget som helst.

Sidste gang de mødtes havde Saints et virkelig godt balanceret angreb. Startede med at Chris Ivory løb for en masse yards som så åbnede for at Drew Brees kunne kaste efter behag og han endte kampen med 29/43 for for 382 yards og 4 TD og 2 INT

Kampen var årets bedste for Matt Hasselbeck med 32/44 for 366 yards og 1 TD.
Seahawks starter med Hasselbeck efter at have startet med Whitehurst sidste uge.
Mener Seahawks har den bedste chance for at vinde med Hasselbeck da Whitehurst spiller for konservativt. Deres game plan med Whitehurst er en masse korte passes med lille risiko. Med Hasselbeck kan de åbne lidt mere op. Problemet med Hasselbeck er så han de sidste par kampe har været en turnover machine så hvis det fortsætter bliver det en blow out sejr til Saints.

Vejret lige nu her i Seattle er omkring 3-4 grader og fuldstændig vindstille. Håber der kommer lidt regn eller sne ved game time da det nok vil forbedre Seahawks chancer.

Til denne kamp er Saints rimelig banged up som er Seahawks klart største chance. De mangler Pierre Thomas og Chris Ivory så tror Seahawk har en god chance for at stoppe deres running game som forhåbentlig betyder de kan stoppe Drew Brees.

Hvis Matt spiller fejlfrit har Seahawks en chance. Seahawks D er ikke nær svækket til denne kamp som den sidste. Dog er jeg en anelse nervøs for deres secondary hvor det kun er Earl Thomas der har haft en god sæson. Deres CBs Kelly Jennings og Marcus Trufant er blevet overspillet kamp efter kamp.

Tror Seahawks hjemmebane fordel på det mest larmende stadion i NFL gør udslaget.

12th Man hjælper Seahawks til en 31-28 sejr.

Synes måske den hjemmebane bliver overvurderet lidt. Ja, det er en fantastisk hjemmebane for Hawks, ingen tvivl om det. Men det er jo ikke et eller andet uindtageligt fort - de har fået tørre tæsk 3 gange i denne sæson på Qwest Field.

Kan slet ikke se Hawks D# stoppe Brees og co, og jeg ser heller ikke Matt Hasselbeck putte nok point på tavlen til at det kan blive rigtig tæt. Tror dog omvendt heller ikke at det bliver en megasejr til Saints, men sådan en mellemting :-)

Hey PN.

Skal lige høre. Når man spiller på INGEN turnovers i en NFL kamp, gælder det så kun interceptions/fumbles, eller også hvis de bliver stoppet på 4th down? Nogen der ved hvad det gælder som i historiebøgerne?

@Ghostface-

Tror 4 down tæller med.. Det gør det i hvert fald i mit madden på computeren.. lol

@ Ishusen

Det tænkte jeg nok.. Desværre forsent, så nåede at sætte penge på ingen turnovers :(.

men kan ikke rigtig finde nogen svar på det nogen steder.

Hvad giver det af odds?

@ Nilsson

Hvis det er til mig så odds 15.

Jeg er 99% sikker på at turnovers officielt kun er INT og fumbles. Selvom man siger "turnover on downs" ved en missed 4 down så ryger det ikke ind under turnovers.

Wikipedia giver mig ret. Ved ikke hvor pålideligt det er.

Ville ingen mening give hvis en turnover paa 4. down taelles som en turnover...
Altsaa udover hvis man reelt laver en turnover paa den down :)

Hvis det bare er fordi man ikke faar ny foerste down er det jo bare det samme som at sparke bolden vaek paa 4. hvilket jo heller ikke er en turnover :)

Hvis det er til odds 15 må det næsten tælle med?

Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Who dat?

Er Brees ikke 2nd Leader i interceptions kun overgået af geniet Eli??

Har følgende spil indtil videre

1Q saints -3AH til odds 2

Bush er ved at komme i gang, ok kan blive en vigtig faktor i dag så har taget ham til O/85,5 gælder både rushing og receving, til 1,85

Og da jeg tror de kommer til at kaste meget i dag har jeg også Colston til at at gribe for mere end 67,5 yards til 1,85

Og så stikker jeg en del ud på saints -3,5 til 1,42

Dear Carsten,



I am writing in regard to your query about your bet on NEO Saints v SEA Seahawks [Team To Commit First Turnover] No [email protected]. My colleagues from the Bookmakers team confirmed that since turnovers are only interceptions or fumbles it is possible that this happens at the 4th down.


If you have any other questions do not hesitate to contact us. We will be more than happy to assist you.



Thank you for choosing us for your online gaming site!



Kind Regards,



Irina


o/

Så går det løs baby! Min krop sitrer af spænding. Bliver så vildt det her.. GO GOOOOOO!!!

LOL - EPIC 3+ INTRO FAIL

:)



men udover det... lets go!

Bliver sgu godt.

Hvem forventer I at se i SB?

Mine tanker i den korte udgave.

AFC

Jeg tror ikke på at de to dårligst seedede hold kommer videre. 3 udekampe, det holder bare ikke, og For Jets vedkommende skal de igennem Colts, Steelers og ssv Pats. Det går bare ikke. Tilsvarende for Ravens som jeg dog tror slår Chiefs. De skal herefter igennem Pats og Steelers/Colts.

Hvem går så hele vejen af de fire resterende? Hjertet siger Pats, og Brady+Belichick har ikke bare gjort det før, de har også præsteret til trods for et af de dårligste defenses i første halvdelen af sæsonen. Herefter er defense så også begyndt at performe, og har blot tilladt modstanderne 47 point de sidste 5 kampe (3 af holdende er tilmed i slutspillet)!


Steelers bliver outsideren her, selvom Colts er begyndt at se noget stærkere ud, og med Manning ved roret, så ved vi at alt kan ske.

NFC


Her burde 3 gange udebane også spille ind, men bortset fra at Seahawks intet har at gøre her, så vil jeg ikke afskrive hverken Saints eller Packers. Det er super close her. Falcons og Matt Ryan har imponeret mig gennem sæsonen, men jeg blev lidt usikker efter nederlaget til Saints, ikke mindst fordi den kamp kommer de til at spille igen i næste runde, og lige nu hælder jeg faktisk til at Saints går i NFC finalen, selvom det er über close. Bears tror jeg ikke helt på, men meget begrænset hvad jeg har set af dem i år, så lidt blank her. Til gengæld synes jeg at det er meget lige mellem Packers og Eagles. Eagles har lavet miraktler, men imellem disse korte perioder hvor de har bombet point på tavlen, så synes jeg at de har været lidt for presset i flere kampe. Packers er i højere grad fået skadet spillere tilbage, og har spillet godt de seneste kampe (igen). Jeg hælder faktisk til at Packers vinder over Eagles og Bears, og så er den helt åben mod sandsynligvis Saints, alternativt Falconss. Faktisk lidt interessant at det er de to hold med 3 forventede udekampe som jeg har til at møde hinanden, hvorved en af dem selvfølgelig får hjemmebane. Hvem vinder så af de to? Close, men tror jeg tager Saints, men det er super super close.

its time baby!! GO HAWKS!!

@Jensen

Mon ikke de fleste forventer at se Pats i SB, de kan kun skuffe. Jeg gætter dog på Ravens i SB, tror de kan slå Pats - hvilket jeg også tror Steelers kan, som de to eneste hold i AFC lige i øjeblikket. (Ved godt at Steelers fik slag tidligere på sæsonen, men de har nok lært lidt :))

Har bettet lidt på Seattle. ;-)

A-Rod jinxed it :)

God start for saints, men burde Bress ikke selv have løbet for en 1 down

Jaaaa og saints på bolden igen

@A-Rod

Smut den her tråd er kun for dem som har spillede på saints :)

No jinx tak :)

Nice af Hawks :))) så har vi foreløbigt en tæt kamp alligevel :D

Så er dagens første bet blevet afgjort, og det giver pengene tilbage da saints føre med 3 efter 1Q, men både Colston og Bush bettet ser godt ud, Colston er på 53 ud af de 67,5 han skal nå, så mon ikke han når det

Seahawks offense spiller sgu godt i dag - men Saints defense er da også ringe. De når da ingen steder i play offs hvis det fortsætter sådan :-)

Tja, måske er mit Seattle bet slet ikke så tosset. :-)

Hvor er NFL fedt - alt kan bare ske.

HAWKSS!!!!!!!!!!

Far har odset for første gange i 6 måneder og har Seattle :-) langt langt fra hjemme, men de har de et skud nu go go go

Tror på saints så skudt lidt flere penge efter saints til 1,66

@Ishusen

Thats the spirit :) Håber bare de tager den hjem..

@Nothing

Det håber jeg satme også, snart ret mange penge ude på den kamp :)

Jeg er satme positiv overrasket over Seattle.:-)

WOW!!! Vildt

Lidt tidligt at sige Ishusen :) Brees har lavet vildere ting, end et evt. comeback i denne kamp.

Har btw spillet over 67.5 point til 1.85

EDIT: Og også Saints sejr til 2.75. Lidt lir skal man vel ha, udover en god kamp :D

Sgu lang vej endnu.

Men det undrer mig meget, at de ikke har brugt Bush mere end de har. Er han småskadet?

Jeg har spillet -9,5 før kampen.
Men efter jeg så store dele af 1 halvleg, blev Seahawks spillet til odds 3,50.
Har også smidt penge efter 7,5 TD mindst, da der var scoret 5 stk.
Det gav flotte odds 2, for offensiven er i fokus idag, imod dårlige defensiv

Wow!! Vildt at de bliver stoppet på 4 down, men også skidt skidt løb

Jeg vil lige have lov at sige jeg inden kampen sagde at et bet på Seahawks var en god idé.. bare lige for at jinxe :D

Syg syg syg kamp... Saints tager alle de forkerte beslutninger, og Matt H spiller på Brady niveau. Derfor man elsker i hader NFL!!!!

Igen, Hvorfor bruger de ikke Bush? Han er så meget bedre end Jones. Men jeg klager ikke. ;-)

Saints de gør det!

TD Saints! Så spændende :D

Edit @Ishus: Haha :)

Ja, og to fejl af Seahawks (personal foul + udskiftingen på defense). Saints kommer tromlende nu, og Seahawks begynder at få gummiarm og laver fejl.

Hvis ikke jeg havde resticted mig selv fra at bette, så havde Saints til odds 4 fået et skud kort før deres TD.

Kom nu Saints!!

@ishues

Der er tid nok. Vigtigt at få point på tavlen. Derudover, Sean Payton spiller aldrig for defensivt ;)

ja ved er bare med utålmodig lige nu hehe

Kom så saints nu er den ca 50/50 på livespil rundt omkring

Hvor er det XXXXing irriterende at Bet365 har lukket for spiller præststioner på Colt - Jets allerede nu.. :-(

OMFG LYNCH!!!

GG Saints.

Hvor er det forsvar en fucking joke!!!

De ved endda at manden får bolden i hænderne, og alligevel tager han den til huset!!!

Godnat for et forsvar der har serveret sejren til dem hele aftenen!!! En spiller som Ed Reed må jo sidde og tænke hvordan de nogensinde har vundet SB med de safeties, og det det løbe forsvar!!!

Weeeeeeeeee

Der røg alle mine bets lige tror jeg :D troede fandme Saints ville vinde lol.. Men fandme fedt at de ryger nu!! Love it

F**K det var et crazzzy run lige før.

worst onside kick ever!

GG Hawks. Virkeligt skuffende Saints. Så er Playoff da vist igang..

Så sindsygt det her.. Tog sgu fejl, troede ikke Saints kunne tabe den her..

Dog gik mit over 67,5 point bet hjem :-)

Hvor er det Crazzy. Men så fedt Saints er ude. Weltklasse. ;-)

omg, playoff kunne simpelthen ikke have startet bedre! Fantastisk kamp - og lækkert resultat når man havde hawks ml + hawks+10,5 .. nu gælder det JETS!!!

@KD

"vil skide på deres hjemmebane!"

Synes nu publikum klarede det meget godt, 3-4 false starts er et stort bidrag!

Når, mens I andre sidder og er helt vilde over kampen, kan jeg godt mærke min puls og nervøsitet er ved at være rigtig høj. ;-)

LETS GO COLTS!!!!!!!! LETS GO MANNING!!!!

Bebber81

Det er stadig fuldstændig ligegyldig information. At NO tabte rykker intet ved det faktum

Har bettet lidt på Jets. ;-)

KOM SÅ MANNING!!!! Nej hvor er jeg nervøs, har seriøse brækfornemmelser af ren nervøsitet. Sveder fandme for vildt også. OMFG.

Kom såå!

EDIT: Jeg jinxede den....

gooooooooooooooo coltsssssssssssssss :)

@A-Rod

Nu stopper du :)

Men godt ramt

BOOOOOOOOOM måske jeg skulle turne pro. better :-) Skal dog så lige ha Colts til at gå hjem også, skal lige passe det så er den der misser :-)

Haha WP Laur.

Nogen der kender noget til det der poker, der hele tiden kører i reklamerne?

@Simon
Har hørt en sige det er lidt det samme som ods, det er rent held, så det er bare at lukke øjenene og klikke lidt på musen.

Gaaaaab. Det er sgu lidt af en fuser i forhold til den anden kamp. :-/

Det er da en tæt kamp :-) Men tror at når de første point er kommet på tavlen, så kommer der gang i det. :)

Ja, men vil sgu hellere se en 27-24 kamp end en 14-10. ;-)

JAAA!! PIERRE GARCON!! PEYTON MANNING DU ER SÅ FANTASTISK!! ELSKER DIG!! DU MIN GUD!!

Fandme ingen der kan få mig så opstemt som Manning. Satme bedre end sex det her imo.

Nice td!

Sgu et godt TD.

INTERCEPTION!! Sick vigtigt tidspunkt jo

Håber satme 2 halv leg bliver bedre. Gaaaaab det har været kedeligt indtil videre.

@Siw

haha det er en ægte fan.

Har det lidt på samme måde med Hansi Hinterseer :)

Haha Ishus :D (kan btw se alle ik er enige med mig siden jeg har fået -2 lol)

EDIT: TD Jets, sikke noget møg

Ja tak. 7-7. :-)

jaja en FG tæller jo også med

Det var jo lige den type kamp jeg havde håbet...

nå jeg ved ikke om jeg får tid til at oprette analyse af i morgen, men packers vs eagles vil jeg ikke bette og i stedet bare nyde hvad der må blive en fantastisk kamp...

men regner med at spille stort på under 45.5 i ravens-chiefs

ved ikke om jeg når at smide en større analyse op...

Seahawks gået hjem til 5,80 og Manning ude af playoffs - så har det været en dejlig nat :D

Go Jets!

LT!

Jaja, 14-10. :-)

Så har vi sgu den spændende afslutning.

Pis, der skulle den conversion vist være faldet :(

Det der er satme dumt!!!


Jeg klager ikke!

Er tiltet....

Han får sit 2 min. drive alligevel..

KOM NU PEYTON!!!!!!

Kom nuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

uha uha det satme spændende. :-/

Nederen at have Colts -2,5 lige nu, da de formegentlig vil være tilfredse med et fg.

STEP UP D#!!!!!

damn et godt return. spændende slutning!

Hvor er det vildt det her!! :-/

PIIIIS!

WAUUWW!

BOOM BABY!

Syge syge syge kampe i dag. Man kan ikke andet end elske NFL.

lidt fesent at nfl hjemmeside er ca. 5 sek hurtigere end det "direkte" tv-signal--så min skærm blinkede field goal jets --før jeg så det

lol har siddet i et kvarter og overvejet hvad jeg skal skrive. I dont know, fuck hvor er det bare noget lort man. Pludselig bliver ens år ødelagt, fucking 9 dage efter det er startet WTF!!!!Ej men det jo så skidt... Hvordan kan Special Teams lade Jets lave sådan et return på sidste drive? Come nu fucking on, det var jo bare det der ikke måtte ske! Sanchez kan jo ikke ramme en skid, men lad os da endelig hjælpe ham ved at give ham fantastisk field position, for vi kan jo godt li' at være hjælpsomme i Indiana - det jo så sick sick ringe. Fyr hele lortet imo.

Ingen Manning før august/september, og det er ikke engang sikkert der kommer NFL næste sæson lol, mega tilt. Men hvis der bliver, har vi da om ikke andet forhåbentlig alle de skadede spillere tilbage...

Nu går jeg sgu i seng og ser badminton på TV2 Sport, det fandme tha shit! Holder med den der vinder, så bliver jeg ikke skuffet.

Godnat PN. ♥♥ :(

Det har sku været en underholdende aften, selvom der blev tabt lidt overall.
Den sidste kamp var godt nok død i 1 halvleg, men fik sku et boost i 2 halvleg.
Så alt i alt, en god lørdags aften/nat underholdning.

for mig er det fandme mystisk hvor mange "skabs" seahawks bettere der er kommet ud, efter den første kamp sluttede...

også snakker vi slet ikke om hvor ringe et bet på seahawks er ligepå før kampen med de stats der nu var tilgængelige, i mine øjne...

:)

Tror jeg måske skal holde mig til poker alligevel

Sick, sick, sick at Seahawks vinder!
Undertegnede var om nogen en af Hawks-haterne. Credit for deres sejr, men de når ikke længere.

Jeg så ikke kampen, men fik sms-updates fra en mate, der sagde at Saints stank af pis..

Jeg så 3- og 4-quarter af Colts vs Jets. Ud fra hvad jeg så, var det ikke en ufortjent sejr. Jets som vi kender dem: Godt d# (Rives spillede virkelig godt) og godt run-o#.

Forfærdelig nat.... Og jeg er ikke fan af andre, end dem jeg har dollars på.

Skiiiiiidt! Kostede en del igår!

har spillet under 42.5p til odds 1.68

og under 14.5p til chiefs 2.7

også ravens -1.5 til 1.84