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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 15
12/14/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industrys largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at whats in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace NFL Week 15
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 14 was a bloodbath for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported a long day of payouts on Monday, losing between 5-7% of their handle. 10 out of 14 favorites covered, which means a lot of 3, 4, 5, even 6 team parlays hit this week. It was the worst day of payouts this NFL season.
The Public posted a monster weekend. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 6-3. For the season, that makes the Public 48-54-8 = 47.1%. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its downward spiral, going 0-3 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 21-17-2 = 55.2%.
Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to be significantly up as bankrolls are flush with last Sundays winnings. Youll see $50 become $100. We anticipate Cincy, Green Bay, Seattle, Indy, and Minnesota will be the most lopsided-bet games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 15 Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
This is a big one. Revenge for the Patriots on the tattle-tale Jets. And a chance for the lowly Jets to stand up to the mighty Patriots in a bitter divisional rivalry. The point spread is a huge 24 points and the bets are fairly evenly split. However, our contacts at the sportsbooks report sharp action on the Jets.
The line opened at NY Jets +24.5 but sharps started driving the line down to 24 and 23.5 fairly quickly. At the time of this writing, there were still some 24s left. Grab the points and go with the smart money.
New York Jets +24
Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers
The public is overwhelmingly on Seattle, with more than 3 out of 4 bets coming in on the Seahawks. Seattles strong 42-21 showing against a decent Arizona squad, combined with Carolinas meek 37-6 loss to Jax gives us the value setup that we like to see.
Well buy Carolina on a low and sell Seattle on a high. Seattle has now run off 5 wins in a row and is gaining a public following. Well make the contrarian play and bet against the public and take the growing number of points, which opened at Carolina +7 and is now +9 and +8 in some places. Thats 1-2 points of added value, right near the key 7 number.
Carolina Panthers +8
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has won 4 in a row while the Bears have lost 2 in a row. Again, we see value by buying the cold team, and selling the hot team. Chicago is better than its 5-8 record suggests. Note that the Bears Points For versus Points Against is not bad at 253-296. We think the Bears will make a game of it.
This is a big Monday Night Football game and the public is riding the favorite as usual. The Public sees a hot Minnesota team that is fighting for a playoff spot. We see a Bear team pl
NFL - Sports Marketwatch
14-12-2007 18:06
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