Om hvorfor Martingale kan overleve.

Grunden til at martingale og andre fjollede strategier stadig lever!
Jeg sad lige og læste en videnskabelig artikel omkring en fibonaccistrategi fra magasinet "JOURNAL OF SPORTS ECONOMICS" Se hvad hans konklusion er:
WCFT = er VM i fodbold.
Der er lidt fejl i matematikken, da sum-tegn ikke kan pastes ind, men det er uvæsentligt.

"Consider the random variable Sn, the amount of capital that the gambler needs
to sustain the Fibonacci betting strategy. From Table 2 and the nature of the geometric
distribution, the random variable Sn has a probability density given by
Pr[Sn = an + 2 – ] = p(1 – p)n – 1, with p = 0.3. Hence, the expected value of Sn is
given by E[Sn] = Σ(an + 2 – ) p(1 – p)n – 1, for n = 1,2,3, etc.. It follows that E[Sn] →∝
as n →∝—that is, no finite amount of money is sufficient to sustain the Fibonacci betting system. However, the WCFTs have only 64 games and there have always been more than 10 draws in this series of games. Thus, a draw occurs every 6
games on average. So the strategy is not without potentially dramatic risk but is
in expectation profitable."

Først siger han at man skal bruge uendelige penge, derefter bruger han enhver gamblers argument. "Men det er jo aldrig sket".

artiklen hedder Fragiskos Archontakis and Evan Osborne "Playing It Safe? A Fibonacci Strategy for Soccer Betting" og er fra JOURNAL OF SPORTS ECONOMICS / June 2007
hvis nogen skulle have lyst til at læse den.

Edit: Sumtegn virker og matematikken er så rigtig