"Tab og vind med samme sind"

Hvis man interesserer sig for psykologi, synes jeg man bør læse dette citat:

"Prospect theory shows that we hate losses twice as much as we love gains. A 1979 study by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed this in an interesting way when they set out to find why people are attracted to both insurance and gambling, two seemingly opposite financial ideas. Subjects were told to choose between these two prospects:

1. A 100% chance of losing $3,000.
2. An 80% chance of losing $4,000, but a 20% chance of losing nothing.

Which would you choose? In the study, 92% of subjects chose prospect 2. The chance of losing nothing, even though it was improbable, was compelling enough to risk losing more. Prospect 1, however, is likely to lose less.

Next, subjects were told to choose between these two options:

3. A 100% chance of gaining $3,000.
4. An 80% chance of gaining $4,000, but a 20% chance of gaining nothing.

Which would you choose? In the study, 80% of subjects chose prospect 3. The guarantee of gaining something was more appealing than the probability of gaining more. Prospect 4, however, is likely to gain more.

People hate risk when it threatens gains, but they love risk when it could prevent losses. We're odd creatures, so intent on averting loss that we're willing to risk losing even more to do so. We are not bold enough when the odds favor gaining, and we are too timid around even small levels of risk. That, in abbreviated form, is what Kahneman and Tversky found and what is called prospect theory."

(Citatet er fra Jason Kellys bog "The neatest little guide to stock market investing", 2008 udgaven.)

Den korte version: "Poker is pain!" ;-)

EDIT:

Bonusinfo: Kahneman fik nobelprisen i økonomi i 2002. Tversky fik den ikke, fordi han døde i 1996.

Har læst den. Det kaldes formueeffekt indenfor økonomi. Så den forklarer ikke hvorfor folk spiller lotto.

@Odin,

Måske kunne man sige at tabene i Lotto er små, mens den potentielle gevinst er meget, meget stor; derfor har formueeffekten ikke virkning i forhold til Lotto.

Ja det behøver man ikke engang argumentere for videnskabeligt imo. Folk betaler for en drøm og de ved det.